Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
The Centre recently released the first advance estimates of kharif crops that, barring tur dal, showed a dip in production due to uneven monsoon and other natural calamities including pest attacks in cotton. The first Advance Estimates, released a few weeks back, are usually initial projections on the crop size and, more often than not, are revised as more inputs come from the fields. But, the findings have rung alarm bells in several quarters. The Centre, along with many others, is confident that as more details come, the estimates will be revised upwards.
From a high of Rs 140 per kg in the wholesale market a few weeks ago, the prices of tomatoes have come down sharply in parts of Karnataka to about Rs 20 as supply of the commodity has improved substantially, officials said on Monday. In the Mysuru APMC (Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee) yard, for example, tomato prices were down to Rs 14 per kg on Sunday.
The latest hike is likely to be followed by another such move next month, said industry players. Before the latest hike, companies had initiated price hikes to the tune of 12-13 per cent in 2021 but they weren't able to fully cover the increase in costs.
Fada estimates that global supply chain headwinds like scarce availability of rare earth elements for electric vehicle components and geopolitical tensions may affect urban consumer sentiment in June as well.
Tata Steel was the biggest gainer in the Sensex chart, rising 2.39 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Nestle, HUL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Asian Paints. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Infosys and Titan were among the laggards.
Tata Steel was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 8.59 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and NTPC, were the major laggards. On the other hand, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Nestle India, ICICI Bank, ITC, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
Post-election capital expenditure (capex) has been weak at 2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in M9FY25. The FY25 revised estimates (RE) indicate 7 per cent growth in FY25 against FY24, implying 21 per cent Y-o-Y growth in Q4FY25 government capex.
The January-March quarter (Q4) results for 2024-25 (FY25) from the country's largest passenger vehicle (PV) maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL), were a mixed bag, with revenues broadly in line but operating profit missing Street expectations. Given cost pressures, margins at the operating level were the lowest in the past seven quarters.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, NTPC, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Adani Ports & SEZ, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Zomato, Tata Motors, and IndusInd Bank were the laggards.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
Commodity investments can help you diversify your portfolio in asset classes other than equity and debt, says Dwaipayan Bose.
The continuing global uncertainity has complicated the fight against inflation, opined Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra during the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on February 8. According to the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Wednesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das also mentioned that there is considerable uncertainty due to a host of global factors such as rising non-oil commodity prices. The RBI on February 8 hiked the key short-term lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation.
The roll out of the proposed Goods and Service Tax (GST) will push prices of essential commodities like atta (flour), maida, vanaspati ghee, mustard oil, tea, arhar dal and moong dal by 5.5-6 per cent.
An analysis of year-wise movements of average global crude oil prices versus India's GDP reveals no inverse correlation, contrary to wide belief.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
The share of slow-moving orders in the overall order book of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is at a multi-year low. This has led to a renewed focus on fast-moving orders. A mix of factors such as commodity price fluctuations, robust order inflow and strong sectoral demand have put capital goods order book in the fast lane, analysts and company executives said. L&T, with its large presence in the capital goods sector, is often seen as the bellwether for trends in this space.
Long-term trends indicate that the extremely high world agricultural prices are not an aberration but will soon become the new normal, which has humongous policy implications for India's economy, says Sonali Ranade
After clocking losses for seven straight quarters, Tata Motors on Wednesday posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,043 crore in the third quarter (Q3) of 2022-23. This came on the back of a strong order book, better semiconductor chip supply, tempered commodity prices, and a better product mix. "We remain cautiously optimistic about the demand situation, notwithstanding the global uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
Gold prices rallied Rs 910 to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 83,750 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday due to heavy buying from jewellers and retailers, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had settled at Rs 82,840 per 10 grams in the previous trading session.
The ongoing headwinds like war-triggered inflation, rate tightening by RBI and weak rupee will lead to a Rs 60,000 crore increase in 'risky debt' in FY23, a ratings agency warned on Monday. Defining 'risky debt' as borrowings by companies having a net leverage or debt to operating profit ratio of more than five times, India Ratings said the ongoing troubles will take the stock of such loans to Rs 6.9 lakh crore by end of FY23, as against the Rs 6.3 lakh crore it would have been but for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. An analysis of 1,385 corporate entities led the domestic ratings agency to trim revenue growth projection for entities in a post-war scenario and also forecast narrowing of the profit margins due to higher commodity prices, an increase in interest rates of up to 1 per cent and the rupee depreciating by a tenth.
'Is it right and proper for the US authorities to allow people like Subrahmanya Swamy [sic] go round the country preaching murder, violence, overthrow of the duly elected Government of India?' A fascinating excerpt from Sugata Srinivasaraju's The Conscience Network: A Chronicle of Resistance to a Dictatorship.
India's purchase of US crude oil has picked up in 2025 and could easily double their previous levels, government officials said on Wednesday. The surge comes in the wake of the then-incoming Donald Trump administration's announcement that it would consider hiking tariffs on a reciprocal basis, and pushed some countries, especially those with large trade surpluses with the US, to buy more of its energy.
ITC, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies and IndusInd Bank were the other big laggards. NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the gainers.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
Gold prices have been on an uptrend in the last few months, rising nearly 28 per cent to $2387 per ounce now. This rise in gold price, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, is attributed to the demand from China amid lack of investor euphoria as regards the yellow metal. "Recent developments show a distinct lack of investor euphoria as regards gold, the question remains what is driving the current rally.
'Our target will come from rural areas as there are more outlets there.'
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
Its 11MFY24 production is around 40.2 mt. In FY25, it could hit 50 mt and it may reach 55 mt by FY26. The PSU has capex plans for multiple projects, which should improve the product mix and augment capacity to 100 mt for FY30.
The Indian rupee may remain under depreciation pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit, said the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. It said the "risks to the current account balance stem from multiple sources". The country's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2 per cent in April-June due to higher trade gap, as per latest data of the Reserve Bank of India.
Farm commodity prices have shown a mixed trend in different centers throughout the country, according to a data released by the Department of Consumer Affairs.
Gold, silver, copper hit multi-year lows, Brent crude near $100 a barrel.
While headline and core WPI are stuck in a disinflationary phase, the retail measure is inching north.
Prices of almost all industrial commodities, barring cotton, are likely to cool down in 2008, after handsome gains in 2007, when a supply glut is expected to supersede demand.
From the Sensex basket, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, NTPC, HCL Technologies, Larsen & Toubro, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
The sharp increase in commodity prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war has put automakers in a fix. After the frequent price hikes in the current fiscal, manufacturers fear that any more price increases may further dent the already weak demand in certain segments. "We have taken several hikes and cannot immediately do it again. "We will have to closely watch the situation and act accordingly," said an official at an auto firm, declining to be identified. Even for companies like Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, which has had a strong volume run and a robust order book, passing on the entire costs has been tough.
Tyre stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, with average returns exceeding 45 per cent. Except for Apollo Tyres, which has seen a slight correction in the last month and a half, limiting its gains to 16 per cent, listed peers such as MRF, CEAT Tyres (formerly Cavi Elettrici e Affini Torino), and JK Tyre & Industries have delivered returns exceeding 30 per cent during this period. Production-related constraints and sluggish demand in Europe, where sales are expected to remain flat, coupled with high valuations, have contributed to Apollo Tyres' underperformance. The tyre sector's gains can be attributed to robust growth trends driven by the replacement market, which constitutes more than two-thirds of sales.
